USDA NASS released its May 2026 almond crop estimate, which came in at 2.70 billion pounds on a shelled basis. The report estimates 1.39 million bearing acres and an average yield of 1,940 pounds per acre. That puts the crop slightly below last season, with production down about 0.7 percent and yield down about 0.6 percent from the previous year.
For growers, this is not a shock number, but it is an important one. After several years of price pressure, water uncertainty, orchard removals, and inconsistent yields, the industry is still trying to understand what the new normal for California almonds looks like.
The Main Numbers From USDA
The headline number is 2.70 billion pounds. USDA also listed 1.39 million bearing acres and a yield of 1,940 pounds per acre. That keeps the crop in line with recent seasons rather than showing a major rebound or major collapse.
That matters because the almond market has been working through supply, demand, carryout, and pricing pressures. A crop of this size provides the industry with more clarity, but it does not address the bigger challenges growers are still facing.
Key numbers:
Bearing acreage: 1.39 million acres
Average yield: 1,940 pounds per acre
Production is down about 0.7 percent from last season
Yield down about 0.6 percent from last season
This estimate gives the industry a starting point, but growers still need to watch how crop sizes, weather, and demand respond.
How This Compares to Other Industry Estimates
Terra Nova Trading reportedly estimated the crop around 2.66 billion pounds, based on a yield estimate of 1,985 pounds per acre and 1.34 million bearing acres.
That means the USDA number is not far from what much of the industry was already expecting.
What this tells growers:
Estimates are generally clustering between 2.66 and 2.70 billion pounds
The industry is not expecting a major oversupply shock right now
Bearing acreage assumptions still matter
Yield per acre remains a key question
Market reaction will depend on shipments, demand, and carryout
When the estimates are this close, the focus shifts from crop size alone to market movement and grower returns.
What This Means for Growers
A 2.70 billion-pound crop keeps the industry within a familiar range. That can bring some stability, but it does not automatically mean better prices. Growers still need stronger demand, disciplined supply management, and better movement through export and domestic channels.
From the farm level, the key question is not just how big the crop is. The real question is whether returns will cover the cost of farming. Labor, water, fertilizer, equipment, bee costs, and regulatory expenses are still high. Even with a moderate crop, margins can remain tight.
Growers should be thinking about:
Cost per acre and cost per pound
Water availability and irrigation efficiency
Orchard blocks that are underperforming
Harvest timing and service availability
Marketing strategy and handler communication
This is a year where discipline matters. The crop estimate helps, but it does not replace good planning.
Why Acreage and Yield Matter More Than Ever
The 1.39 million bearing acres are important because acreage has been a major question in the almond industry. Older blocks, water pressure, and low returns have pushed some growers to remove orchards or reconsider long term plans.
Yield is just as important. USDA’s 1,940 pounds per acre estimate suggests the industry is still below the 2,000 pound per acre mark. Terra Nova’s report also raised the question of whether sub 2,000 pound yields may be part of a new operating reality for the industry.
Important factors to watch:
Removed acreage
Aging orchards
Water restricted regions
Bee strength and bloom conditions
Heat and irrigation stress during nut sizing
The industry is not just dealing with market cycles. It deals with structural changes in acreage, water, and orchard productivity.
One Change Growers Should Know About
The Almond Board of California noted that USDA NASS changed how reports are packaged, meaning California almond data may appear inside broader national releases rather than the old California specific format. The Almond Board also said the 2026 Subjective Forecast will be the only yield related USDA report this year, after the board voted to stop funding the Objective Estimate.
That matters because growers have historically looked for both the May Subjective Forecast and the July Objective Estimate. Without the same reporting structure, industry members may lean more heavily on shipment reports, handler updates, private estimates, and field observations.
What growers should expect:
Fewer USDA almond specific forecast updates
More attention on private crop estimates
More importance placed on handler and shipment data
More market uncertainty between estimate releases
Greater need to track conditions locally
The crop number is important, but how the industry interprets it may be changing, too.
Final Thought
The USDA estimate of 2.70 billion pounds gives growers a clearer starting point for the 2026 almond season. It is neither a runaway nor a short crop. It is a steady number in a market that is still trying to find balance.
For growers, the work now is about staying disciplined. Watch costs, watch water, communicate with handlers, and keep field operations running on time.
Agnomy helps growers connect with agricultural service providers for irrigation support, spraying, harvest preparation, orchard work, and other critical jobs that keep operations moving. In a season where margins are tight and timing matters, having the right service support can make a real difference.
